The referendum polling data reported by Eddie Barnes (Inside Politics, 11 December) must give the independence campaigners pause for thought. There is more than a passing resemblance between the weighty Scottish Government independence white paper and the Labour Party's 1983 unsuccessful election manifesto which was condemned as 'longest suicide note in history'. Like that manifesto, the white paper is full of ambitions and radical breaks from past policies but it clearly fails to convince the middle mass of the population which has a modest investment in continuing stability and relative prosperity.
What confidence these middling strata might have in the independence project is further undermined by the various groups congregating around the independence cause who seek to promote even more radical changes. Whatever ideas and plans for an independent Scottish state the SNP has, it additionally proposes that a new constitution will be framed shortly after the achievement of independence that may lead to outcomes radically different from those put to the electorate in next September's independence referendum.
The 'yes' campaign is doomed to failure unless it can gain the support of the middle sector of society. Labour failed to do this in 1983 and got 30% of the votes cast in that general election. Understandable national sentiments in Scotland will likely give the independence campaigners a higher figure than this in the referendum ballot next year and separatism will continue to have some support in Scotland but it looks as though there is good reason for the majority of the Scottish electorate to have profound doubts about risking their futures with a 'yes' vote in the independence referendum on 18 September next year.
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