'Yes' vote would bring great uncertainty

According to the Better Together campaign over a quarter of the pledges in the SNP Scottish Government's independence proposals, such as those to retain the pound and continue existing pension arrangements, may not come about if there is a 'yes' vote in September's referendum as they would require the agreement of third parties outside of Scotland such as the UK and the European Union, which, of course,may not be forthcoming.

But even the other pledges would require the agreement of the Scottish Parliament and no one can predict, in practice, which policies will be followed if there is a 'yes' vote because of the resultant changed patterns of Scottish politics and the uncertain financial situation. .

The SNP's argument would be more believable is it focussed on constitutional change rather that mixing it with party political campaigning.

lt.

Worrying trends in Scottish Government independence plans

It has taken some time for people to access, digest and evaluate the weighty volumes issued by the Scottish Government on 26 November on its proposed plans for independence. There are numerous aspects of the documents that raise profound legal issues. Particularly worrying is the way that the papers mix proposals for constitutional change with party political propaganda. Civil servants who are supposed to be politically neutral appear to have been involved in an unprecedented way in preparing an election manifesto for a governing party to fight the Scottish Parliamentary elections of May 2016, whether or not the country is by then an independent state.

The current Scottish Government was elected under the Scotland Act of 1998, the principles of which were approved by referendum the year before. Under these rules the Scottish Government has no legal powers on constitutional change. The SNP achieved a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament in 2011 with about 45% of the votes cast on a platform for holding a referendum on independence and that commitment is being respected. 

But preparing the case for an independent Scotland is a very different matter from proposing policy for whatever government might come to power under such a scenario. If Scotland was independent there is no way of knowing what policies the electorate might support and the Scottish Government of the day might enact. The policies proposed for an independent Scottish government in the white paper are party political and civil servants should not have been involved in framing these parts of what is now officially to be renamed as the 'guide' to independence.

The party political elements of the independence white paper are indications of worrying trends in Scottish Government and do not bode well for constitutional government in the aftermath of a possible 'yes' vote or with the possible advent of independence. They provide yet another reason for voting 'no' next September.

Letter in the Edinburgh Evening News 18 December 2013

The Scottish Government White Paper on Independence - 'a long suicide note'?

The referendum polling data reported by Eddie Barnes (Inside Politics, 11 December) must give the independence campaigners pause for thought. There is more than a passing resemblance between the weighty Scottish Government independence white paper and the Labour Party's 1983 unsuccessful election manifesto which was condemned as 'longest suicide note in history'. Like that manifesto, the white paper is full of ambitions and radical breaks from past policies but it clearly fails to convince the middle mass of the population which has a modest investment in continuing stability and relative prosperity. 

What confidence these middling strata might have in the independence project is further undermined by the various groups congregating around the independence cause who seek to promote even more radical changes. Whatever ideas and plans for an independent Scottish state the SNP has, it additionally proposes that a new constitution will be framed shortly after the achievement of independence that may lead to outcomes radically different from those put to the electorate in next September's independence referendum.

The 'yes' campaign is doomed to failure unless it can gain the support of the middle sector of society. Labour failed to do this in 1983 and got 30% of the votes cast in that general election. Understandable national sentiments in Scotland will likely give the independence campaigners a higher figure than this in the referendum ballot next year and separatism will continue to have some support in Scotland but it looks as though there is good reason for the majority of the Scottish electorate to have profound doubts about risking their futures with a 'yes' vote in the independence referendum on 18 September next year.